Pundits Vs. Coin Toss
I read this in a Tyndale Publishers insert:
A researcher looked at 284 prominent economists, foreign policy experts, and journalists whose opinions and prognostications have been quoted since 1980...
When the results were in on [their] 82,000 predictions, the vast majority of experts had performed worse than random chance, with an accuracy level of below 50%. It made no difference whether or not the expert was liberal, conservative, or moderate. They were all equally ineffective. And the most famous experts tended to perform the worst!
Why? Most experts... were the victims of confirmation bias... they ignored evidence that contradicted their preferred theories or narrative.
...It just goes to show that a lot of our... discourse is driven, in large part, by people whose opinions are less accurate than a coin toss.